← Hobby Lords Setia Alam DTR Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Hobby Lords Setia Alam DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 71.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Water Allies | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dredging Streams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |