← Hobby Lords Setia Alam DTR Store Championship
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Hobby Lords Setia Alam DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.8%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1399
· median 1399
· range 1399–1399
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1264
Q3 1458
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Allies | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
