← ProjectCCG DTR Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ProjectCCG DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 1 | 5.6% | 8 | 87.5% | 76.8% | 62.4% | 62.8% | 1319 | — |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 11.1% | 14 | 78.6% | 68.5% | 62.2% | 60.7% | 1390 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.4% | 55.7% | 52.4% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 75.0% | 51.2% | 53.9% | 48.9% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suited | 2 | 11.1% | 15 | 53.3% | 56.3% | 51.6% | 52.5% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.4% | 51.3% | 50.5% | 1345 | — |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 42.3% | 50.9% | 43.3% | 1528 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 62.6% | 50.0% | 55.7% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Rile | 7 | 38.9% | 31 | 48.4% | 45.6% | 49.6% | 48.1% | 1330 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 16.7% | 15 | 43.3% | 47.7% | 48.4% | 51.1% | 1302 | — |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.6% | 4 | 37.5% | 39.9% | 43.3% | 42.0% | 1280 | — |
| 12 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 11.1% | 12 | 37.5% | 49.1% | 42.7% | 46.7% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 36.7% | 41.9% | 45.1% | 1241 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 0.0% | 23.1% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 5.6% | 8 | 12.5% | 34.4% | 35.7% | 41.1% | 1156 | ↓ low |