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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Sentinel Games DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-6-2
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1352
· range 1209–1372
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1149
Q1 1243
Q3 1410
1577
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Allies | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
