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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Sentinel Games DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1308
· median 1334
· range 1163–1428
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1149
Q1 1243
Q3 1410
1577
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Allies | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.8% | -12.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
