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Fire SuzakuTier 2

at Sentinel Games DTR Store Championship

decks
5 (11.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13 4-9-0
overall winrate
30.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.2% avg ELO -7.9 per match
expected value
47.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1272 · median 1284 · range 1156–1376 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1149 Q1 1243 Q3 1410 1577
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 40% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 14.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.4% +11.9
Water Allies 9.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.3
Fire Aggro 7.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 31.0% -18.2
Fire Crux Mage 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.0
Fire Umbra Guardian 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.4
Wind Seiryuu 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.9% -22.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.8% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.8% -16.4
Water Genbu 4.8% 0
Wind Allies 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.6% +7.4
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.6% +7.4
Fire Suited 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.1% -17.5
Horse and Taxes 2.4% 0
Water Aetherwing 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.4% -20.2
Water Astra Ranger 2.4% 0
Water Neos Tonoris 2.4% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.4% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
March Hare, Mottled Host -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Heated Vengeance -1.00 0 1 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven -1.00 0 1 0
Liminal Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Unyielding Wraithguard +1.00 1 0 0
Arthur, Young Heir -1.00 0 1 0
Three of Hearts +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Mortal Ambition -1.00 0 1 0
Executioner's Spear -1.00 0 1 0
Creative Shock +1.00 1 0 0
Peppered Chef -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Dazzling Courtesan -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewreath Call +1.00 1 0 0
Shatter the Brittle -1.00 0 1 0
Immolation Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion +1.00 1 0 0
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion -1.00 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/33797/archetypes/Fire Suzaku