← EVO Store Championship(need entry on tonamel first)
Fire SuitedTier 2
at EVO Store Championship(need entry on tonamel first)
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-7-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.1%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1163
· median 1163
· range 1034–1292
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1027
Q1 1193
Q3 1381
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
