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Water FractalTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |