← EVO Store Championship(need entry on tonamel first)
Water AetherwingTier 1
at EVO Store Championship(need entry on tonamel first)
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
10-3-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.9%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1399
· median 1399
· range 1252–1545
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1027
Q1 1193
Q3 1381
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
