Fire AggroTier 1
at GOH DTR SC
decks
3
(15.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
12-5-2
overall winrate
68.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.8%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
56.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1347
· median 1265
· range 1264–1513
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1216
Q3 1422
1532
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 64.6% | +9.4 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.3% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.3% | -8.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
