Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at GOH DTR SC
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1468
· median 1468
· range 1468–1468
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1216
Q3 1422
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
