Water FractalTier 1
at GOH DTR SC
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-3-2
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.2%
avg ELO -5.9 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1238
· median 1238
· range 1195–1281
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1216
Q3 1422
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
