Water AlliesTier 2
at GOH DTR SC
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
0-6-1
overall winrate
7.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.9%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
40.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1246
· median 1246
· range 1118–1374
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1216
Q3 1422
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
