← Distorted Reflections Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Distorted Reflections Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 1 5.9% 8 87.5% 62.7% 62.3% 55.9% 1630 ↑ top
2 Fire Suzaku 1 5.9% 6 83.3% 63.0% 57.7% 55.4% 1362
3 Fire Oblation 1 5.9% 5 70.0% 58.7% 55.0% 55.5% 1348
4 Fire Rile 5 29.4% 23 60.9% 52.7% 54.0% 51.2% 1413
5 Fire Suited 2 11.8% 13 57.7% 56.0% 52.9% 53.4% 1401
6 Wind Ciel 1 5.9% 5 40.0% 55.2% 48.6% 52.7% 1331 ↓ low
7 Wind Shadowstrike 2 11.8% 9 55.6% 49.5% 48.2% 48.5% 1376
8 Horse and Taxes 2 11.8% 11 50.0% 50.6% 47.8% 48.9% 1399
9 Fire Aggro 1 5.9% 5 40.0% 34.5% 46.7% 43.6% 1496 ↑ top
10 Water Aetherwing 1 5.9% 6 25.0% 49.9% 44.6% 49.8% 1352
11 Water Crux Mage 1 5.9% 6 33.3% 35.1% 43.5% 41.9% 1642 ↑ top
12 Water Fractal 1 5.9% 7 28.6% 46.8% 40.6% 46.0% 1159 ↓ low
13 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 5.9% 6 0.0% 38.6% 37.0% 44.8% 1184 ↓ low
14 Water Astra Ranger 1 5.9% 4 0.0% 31.6% 35.8% 40.2% 1234 ↓ low