EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at S5 店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 10.0% | 14 | 60.7% | 65.8% | 54.0% | 56.9% | 1332 | — |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 10.0% | 12 | 66.7% | 59.7% | 53.8% | 53.0% | 1473 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 65.0% | 63.0% | 53.5% | 53.6% | 1357 | — |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 10.0% | 11 | 63.6% | 48.7% | 52.4% | 48.8% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 6.7% | 11 | 54.5% | 41.7% | 51.8% | 47.5% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.8% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 50.0% | 41.8% | 49.9% | 46.2% | 1480 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Zander | 2 | 6.7% | 9 | 55.6% | 51.0% | 49.9% | 49.4% | 1254 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.2% | 49.2% | 50.4% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 50.0% | 57.0% | 47.7% | 50.9% | 1335 | — |
| 11 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.5% | 47.3% | 48.9% | 1288 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 30.0% | 39.2% | 46.2% | 48.0% | 1245 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.2% | 45.0% | 49.0% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 46.2% | 44.5% | 47.7% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Genbu | 3 | 10.0% | 15 | 40.0% | 36.9% | 43.9% | 42.7% | 1359 | — |
| 16 | Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 46.8% | 41.8% | 48.0% | 1121 | ↓ low |