EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Oblation

54.2%

3.2% share · 5 matches

9.7% share · 19 matches

3.2% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Genbu	3	9.7%	19	71.1%	64.1%	57.7%	57.0%	1479	↑ top
2	Fire Oblation	1	3.2%	5	70.0%	59.6%	54.2%	53.6%	1466	↑ top
3	Fire Arcane	1	3.2%	6	58.3%	49.8%	53.6%	52.2%	1364	—
4	Water Astra Ranger	1	3.2%	5	50.0%	55.9%	52.0%	54.2%	1222	↓ low
5	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	3.2%	5	60.0%	54.6%	51.7%	51.1%	1333	—
6	Wind Seiryuu	3	9.7%	15	53.3%	50.7%	51.5%	50.1%	1433	↑ top
7	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	3.2%	6	58.3%	60.6%	51.5%	54.4%	1237	↓ low
8	Wind Shadowstrike	4	12.9%	23	54.3%	47.9%	51.4%	50.3%	1289	—
9	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	3.2%	7	64.3%	64.6%	51.2%	54.8%	1233	↓ low
10	Fire Aggro	1	3.2%	5	60.0%	48.4%	48.9%	46.6%	1305	—
11	Water Aetherwing	2	6.5%	7	35.7%	52.0%	47.7%	51.6%	1299	—
12	Wind Astra Cleric	2	6.5%	11	50.0%	43.3%	47.5%	46.2%	1467	↑ top
13	Fire Suzaku	2	6.5%	10	30.0%	41.1%	46.7%	48.3%	1220	↓ low
14	Water Umbra Ciel	1	3.2%	5	30.0%	49.4%	45.9%	51.0%	1223	↓ low
15	Fire Slimes	3	9.7%	13	30.8%	39.9%	45.7%	47.3%	1193	↓ low
16	Fire Crux Mage	2	6.5%	9	33.3%	33.5%	44.7%	43.1%	1258	↓ low
17	Water Allies	2	6.5%	5	20.0%	36.9%	43.6%	44.3%	1365	—