← MSG Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at MSG Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.1%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1440
· median 1440
· range 1440–1440
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1181
Q3 1403
1548
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
