MSG Distorted Reflections Store Championship

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	1	9.1%	2-1-1	62.5%	43.7%	52.5%	47.5%	1327	—
2		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	1	9.1%	2-1-2	60.0%	63.4%	52.0%	54.8%	1234	↓ low
3		Fire Oblation	Tier 1	1	9.1%	4-1-1	75.0%	72.7%	57.1%	60.2%	1342	—
4		Fire Suited	Tier 2	1	9.1%	0-3-0	0.0%	38.8%	40.0%	44.8%	1108	↓ low
5		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 1	1	9.1%	2-2-0	50.0%	51.7%	50.0%	50.7%	1499	↑ top
6		Water Aetherwing	Tier 1	1	9.1%	5-1-0	83.3%	57.8%	58.0%	53.5%	1548	↑ top
7		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 2	1	9.1%	0-3-0	0.0%	36.3%	40.0%	43.6%	1128	↓ low
8		Water Genbu	Tier 2	1	9.1%	1-2-0	33.3%	45.7%	46.7%	48.0%	1345	—
9		Water Umbra Guardian	Tier 1	1	9.1%	2-2-1	50.0%	41.1%	50.4%	46.7%	1440	↑ top
10		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	9.1%	1-2-0	33.3%	33.8%	46.7%	42.5%	1367	—
11		Wind Arisanna	Tier 2	1	9.1%	1-2-1	37.5%	51.2%	47.5%	50.5%	1119	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 9.1%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 9.1%
• Fire Oblation 1 deck · 9.1%
• Fire Suited 1 deck · 9.1%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 9.1%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 9.1%
• Water Astra Ranger 1 deck · 9.1%
• Water Genbu 1 deck · 9.1%
• Water Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 9.1%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 9.1%
• Wind Arisanna 1 deck · 9.1%