← MSG Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Wind ArisannaTier 2
at MSG Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1119
· median 1119
· range 1119–1119
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1181
Q3 1403
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
