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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 64.0% | +9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.0% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Water Neos | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.4% | +2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -10.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Undying Dreams, Regal Inquisition, Crux Sight. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |