← Whimsy DTR Store Championships
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Whimsy DTR Store Championships
decks
2
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-8-0
overall winrate
38.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1325
· median 1325
· range 1182–1467
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1267
Q3 1467
1642
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.6% | -2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
