EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Arena DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Seiryuu

54.0%

12.5% share · 7 matches

1st

Slimes

55.4%

6.2% share · 4 matches

3rd

Wind Exia

53.3%

6.2% share · 4 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Slimes	1	6.2%	4	62.5%	56.3%	55.4%	55.1%	1265	—
2	Wind Seiryuu	2	12.5%	7	71.4%	61.7%	54.0%	53.2%	1269	—
3	Wind Exia	1	6.2%	4	50.0%	49.2%	53.3%	52.4%	1177	↓ low
4	Fire Astra Ranger	1	6.2%	4	50.0%	48.7%	51.7%	50.6%	1164	↓ low
5	Wind Shadowstrike	3	18.8%	14	53.6%	51.3%	51.6%	51.0%	1226	—
6	Water Fractal	1	6.2%	5	60.0%	53.4%	51.4%	50.7%	1377	↑ top
7	Fire Arcane	1	6.2%	4	37.5%	44.4%	50.0%	49.9%	1135	↓ low
8	Water Aetherwing	1	6.2%	6	66.7%	64.2%	50.0%	52.5%	1253	—
9	Wind Neos	1	6.2%	4	62.5%	54.9%	50.0%	50.1%	1478	↑ top
10	Fire Arisanna	1	6.2%	4	37.5%	43.7%	48.3%	48.3%	1185	↓ low
11	Fire Aggro	1	6.2%	4	25.0%	38.4%	44.0%	44.5%	1183	↓ low
12	Fire Seiryuu	2	12.5%	6	8.3%	29.1%	40.6%	42.5%	1150	↓ low