Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 東門艾客米DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.1%
avg ELO -9.1 per match
expected value
42.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1228
· median 1228
· range 1216–1240
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1125
Q1 1219
Q3 1392
1539
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
