EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/2/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Genbu

54.7%

7.3% share · 11 matches

1st

Fire Suited

57.3%

2.4% share · 4 matches

2.4% share · 4 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Suited	1	2.4%	4	75.0%	50.5%	57.3%	50.4%	1511	↑ top
2	Water Genbu	3	7.3%	11	68.2%	50.5%	54.7%	50.2%	1378	—
3	Fire Tera Cleric	1	2.4%	4	75.0%	50.8%	54.5%	50.3%	1328	—
4	Water Tera Cleric	1	2.4%	4	62.5%	50.6%	54.4%	50.4%	1170	↓ low
5	Fire Crux Mage	4	9.8%	11	54.5%	50.4%	51.8%	50.2%	1354	—
6	Water Tera Mage	4	9.8%	13	53.8%	51.3%	51.2%	50.7%	1273	—
7	Wind Seiryuu	3	7.3%	11	59.1%	50.6%	51.0%	50.1%	1338	—
8	Fire Suzaku	2	4.9%	7	71.4%	51.9%	50.8%	50.5%	1206	↓ low
9	Fire Umbra Guardian	3	7.3%	8	37.5%	48.3%	50.5%	49.6%	1439	↑ top
10	Wind Shadowstrike	5	12.2%	14	46.4%	48.5%	50.2%	49.5%	1381	—
11	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	2.4%	4	50.0%	50.8%	50.0%	50.4%	1094	↓ low
12	Horse and Taxes	1	2.4%	2	50.0%	50.6%	50.0%	50.4%	1560	↑ top
13	Wind Byakko	1	2.4%	3	33.3%	49.6%	48.6%	50.0%	1219	↓ low
14	Water Umbra Guardian	2	4.9%	5	30.0%	49.6%	46.5%	50.0%	1190	↓ low
15	Fire Astra Cleric	1	2.4%	3	50.0%	50.5%	46.2%	49.9%	1083	↓ low
16	Water Aetherwing	4	9.8%	9	33.3%	48.9%	43.2%	49.5%	1305	—
17	Wind Umbra Guardian	1	2.4%	3	33.3%	49.4%	42.9%	49.5%	1638	↑ top
18	Slimes	1	2.4%	4	25.0%	49.4%	42.2%	49.8%	1124	↓ low
19	Fire Lorraine	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	49.2%	40.0%	49.4%	1176	↓ low
20	Water Astra Ranger	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	47.9%	40.0%	48.8%	1381	—