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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Reaper Game Store - Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1278–1278
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1203
Q1 1303
Q3 1404
1578
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 23.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
