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Water AetherwingTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.6% | -14.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Slimes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prudent Nock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |