← Curio Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Curio Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.1%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1414
· median 1414
· range 1385–1442
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1252
Q3 1449
1511
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
