EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.3% | 10 | 90.0% | 58.0% | 60.4% | 53.9% | 1574 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.3% | 9 | 83.3% | 74.6% | 58.6% | 58.9% | 1364 | — |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 3 | 10.0% | 15 | 60.0% | 41.6% | 55.5% | 47.6% | 1514 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.2% | 53.6% | 55.6% | 1333 | — |
| 5 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 52.3% | 50.4% | 1411 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 13.3% | 22 | 50.0% | 45.4% | 51.5% | 49.0% | 1341 | — |
| 7 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 51.3% | 51.3% | 1311 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 51.3% | 51.3% | 1311 | — |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 13.3% | 19 | 52.6% | 62.9% | 50.6% | 54.7% | 1297 | — |
| 10 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 10.0% | 14 | 39.3% | 47.6% | 49.3% | 52.1% | 1314 | — |
| 11 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 33.3% | 32.0% | 49.2% | 45.2% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 59.8% | 49.1% | 53.6% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 10.0% | 14 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | 49.2% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.4% | 44.3% | 46.1% | 1308 | — |
| 15 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.4% | 44.3% | 46.1% | 1308 | — |
| 16 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 10.0% | 16 | 37.5% | 45.7% | 44.1% | 46.4% | 1268 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 25.0% | 41.2% | 44.0% | 45.9% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.2% | 43.6% | 44.0% | 1370 | — |