EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at JWW DTR Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 91.7% | 56.3% | 59.2% | 52.1% | 1513 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 3 | 18.8% | 14 | 64.3% | 51.3% | 59.0% | 52.5% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 18.8% | 13 | 53.8% | 58.3% | 50.3% | 52.6% | 1248 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 12.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 48.2% | 49.9% | 47.9% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.1% | 48.9% | 51.8% | 1297 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 47.9% | 48.2% | 49.6% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Wind Vanitas | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.4% | 42.9% | 44.7% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 3 | 18.8% | 10 | 30.0% | 49.1% | 41.4% | 48.1% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Astra Diana | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 29.4% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1095 | ↓ low |