← Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Neos | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condemned Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reverse Affliction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overwhelming Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |