← Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-5-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.7%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1476
· median 1476
· range 1436–1517
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1035
Q1 1164
Q3 1367
1597
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.3% | -8.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.2% | -7.4 |
| Water Neos | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
