← Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1094
· median 1094
· range 1094–1094
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1035
Q1 1164
Q3 1367
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.8% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Neos | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
