Fire Crux MageTier 2
at ストアチャンピオンシップ in HASUYA
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1241–1463
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1243
Q3 1413
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
