Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at ストアチャンピオンシップ in HASUYA
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-6-1
overall winrate
18.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -5.2 per match
expected value
39.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1121
· median 1121
· range 1047–1196
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1243
Q3 1413
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.5% | -3.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
