Fire SuzakuTier 1
at ストアチャンピオンシップ in HASUYA
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.9%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1207
· median 1207
· range 1098–1315
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1243
Q3 1413
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 18.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
