← Distorted Reflections Store Championship by Metagame Thailand

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Distorted Reflections Store Championship by Metagame Thailand. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Fractal 1 6.2% 6 75.0% 60.3% 58.3% 55.7% 1377 ↑ top
2 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 12.5% 10 70.0% 59.1% 57.5% 55.9% 1327 ↑ top
3 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.2% 4 75.0% 58.3% 52.5% 51.6% 1312 ↑ top
4 Fire Suzaku 1 6.2% 4 50.0% 53.0% 51.7% 53.1% 1207 ↓ low
5 Wind Allies 1 6.2% 4 50.0% 49.8% 51.1% 50.8% 1290
6 Slimes 2 12.5% 10 50.0% 52.9% 50.3% 51.1% 1215
7 Water Aetherwing 1 6.2% 1 50.0% 49.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1253
8 Wind Shadowstrike 3 18.8% 11 50.0% 47.5% 49.7% 48.9% 1276
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 6.2% 4 50.0% 47.8% 46.7% 46.6% 1293 ↑ top
10 Fire Crux Merlin 2 12.5% 8 18.8% 37.9% 42.0% 44.4% 1116 ↓ low
11 Fire Aetherwing 1 6.2% 4 0.0% 30.6% 40.0% 42.1% 1124 ↓ low