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Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Grand Canyon DTR Store Championsip
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-4-1
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1398
· median 1398
· range 1258–1538
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1374
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 25.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Ciel | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
