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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Grand Canyon DTR Store Championsip
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.8%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
41.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1178
· median 1178
· range 1178–1178
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1374
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
