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Water Crux MageTier 2
at Grand Canyon DTR Store Championsip
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1124
· median 1124
· range 1124–1124
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1374
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
