← No-Banlist Revelfest Tournament!
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at No-Banlist Revelfest Tournament!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Fire Firebloom Burn
60.0%
↑ top
1st
Wind Shadowstrike
64.0%
↑ top
3rd
Wind Umbra Ranger
58.5%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 15.4% | 7 | 85.7% | 49.7% | 64.0% | 49.9% | 1492 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 100.0% | 50.5% | 60.0% | 50.4% | 1508 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 80.0% | 52.3% | 58.5% | 51.0% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Allies | 2 | 15.4% | 8 | 62.5% | 50.2% | 58.1% | 50.4% | 1278 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 87.5% | 51.7% | 58.0% | 50.7% | 1276 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 52.9% | 50.3% | 1340 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 15.4% | 9 | 44.4% | 49.7% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 1276 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.3% | 44.0% | 49.5% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 7.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 49.2% | 43.7% | 49.5% | 1302 | — |
| 10 | Fire Rile | 6 | 46.2% | 18 | 36.1% | 49.8% | 42.9% | 49.8% | 1288 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 7.7% | 6 | 0.0% | 48.1% | 36.9% | 49.1% | 1231 | ↓ low |