← No-Banlist Revelfest Tournament!

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at No-Banlist Revelfest Tournament!. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 2 15.4% 7 85.7% 49.7% 64.0% 49.9% 1492 ↑ top
2 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 7.7% 3 100.0% 50.5% 60.0% 50.4% 1508 ↑ top
3 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 7.7% 5 80.0% 52.3% 58.5% 51.0% 1425 ↑ top
4 Water Allies 2 15.4% 8 62.5% 50.2% 58.1% 50.4% 1278 ↓ low
5 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 7.7% 4 87.5% 51.7% 58.0% 50.7% 1276 ↓ low
6 Fire Erupting 2 15.4% 6 50.0% 50.4% 52.9% 50.3% 1340
7 Fire Crux Mage 2 15.4% 9 44.4% 49.7% 49.5% 49.9% 1276 ↓ low
8 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 7.7% 4 25.0% 49.3% 44.0% 49.5% 1222 ↓ low
9 Fire Arcane 1 7.7% 6 33.3% 49.2% 43.7% 49.5% 1302
10 Fire Rile 6 46.2% 18 36.1% 49.8% 42.9% 49.8% 1288 ↓ low
11 Horse and Taxes 1 7.7% 6 0.0% 48.1% 36.9% 49.1% 1231 ↓ low