← Grand Archive 2024 World Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive 2024 World Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Allies 1 6.2% 8 62.5% 66.7% 61.2% 70.1% 1281 ↓ low
2 Wind Crux Lorraine 2 12.5% 15 60.0% 47.1% 52.5% 45.6% 1552
3 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 6.2% 7 42.9% 57.7% 51.0% 59.5% 1452 ↓ low
4 Fire Arcane 5 31.2% 29 51.7% 50.9% 50.1% 49.8% 1624 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 1 6.2% 7 42.9% 40.4% 49.9% 47.8% 1656 ↑ top
6 Fire Crux Mage 4 25.0% 19 42.1% 42.4% 48.1% 48.8% 1532
7 Wind Allies 1 6.2% 10 50.0% 65.2% 46.7% 51.9% 1366 ↓ low
8 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 6.2% 7 42.9% 32.7% 46.7% 41.2% 1685 ↑ top