← Grand Archive 2024 World Championships
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive 2024 World Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 8 | 62.5% | 66.7% | 61.2% | 70.1% | 1281 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 12.5% | 15 | 60.0% | 47.1% | 52.5% | 45.6% | 1552 | — |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 57.7% | 51.0% | 59.5% | 1452 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Arcane | 5 | 31.2% | 29 | 51.7% | 50.9% | 50.1% | 49.8% | 1624 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 40.4% | 49.9% | 47.8% | 1656 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 25.0% | 19 | 42.1% | 42.4% | 48.1% | 48.8% | 1532 | — |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 10 | 50.0% | 65.2% | 46.7% | 51.9% | 1366 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 32.7% | 46.7% | 41.2% | 1685 | ↑ top |