← Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
decks
3
(8.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
10-10-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1253
· median 1211
· range 1137–1410
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1164
Q3 1338
1617
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.6% | -6.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.6% | +2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.7% | +5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
