← Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
Water AetherwingTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.4% | -2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.4% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |