← Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1335
· median 1335
· range 1335–1335
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1164
Q3 1338
1617
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Luxem Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
