← 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle
decks
4
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
15-11-2
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1397
· median 1393
· range 1241–1560
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1213
Q3 1409
1619
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 28.0% | -12.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -3.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.4 |
| Water Fractal | 4.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.6% | +11.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +7.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Water Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
