← 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle

decks
8 (10.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
47 21-19-7
overall winrate
52.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2% avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
50.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331 · median 1265 · range 1243–1597 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025 Q1 1213 Q3 1409 1619
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 13.5% 8 4-3-1 56.2% 54.2% 54.2% +2.0
Water Aetherwing 8.1% 6 1-4-1 25.0% 35.0% 36.4% -7.3
Fire Crux Mage 5.4% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 55.9% +3.4
Fire Umbra Guardian 5.4% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 54.0% +3.0
Fire Suzaku 4.1% 0
Water Fractal 4.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +9.0
Wind Astra Cleric 4.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.9% -9.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.7% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 58.5% +6.4
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.7% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.2% +5.9
Fire Oblation 2.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.9% -4.9
Fire Suited 2.7% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 53.4% +3.2
Water Allies 2.7% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 35.8% -13.6
Water Umbra Guardian 2.7% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 2.7% 0
Fire Aetherwing 1.4% 0
Fire Aggro 1.4% 0
Fire Exia 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.0% -14.5
Fire Seiryuu 1.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.4% +11.9
Fire Umbra Alice 1.4% 0
Fire Umbra Ciel 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.5% +12.0
Horse and Taxes 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.5% +5.5
Water Astra Cleric 1.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.4% -8.3
Water Astra Diana 1.4% 0
Water Astra Ranger 1.4% 0
Water Chess 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.3% +16.5
Water Genbu 1.4% 0
Water Zander 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.8% +10.9
Wind Arcane 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.5
Wind Ciel 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.7% +10.7
Wind Razorgale 1.4% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.2% -17.3
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 3 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 3 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Agility -1.00 0 1 0
Nocturne's Oblivion -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/41093/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike