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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.6% | -13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Condemned Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |