← Valhalla Hobby Phantom Monarch Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Valhalla Hobby Phantom Monarch Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Slimes 1 12.5% 3 100.0% 69.6% 64.4% 62.9% 1340 ↑ top
2 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 48.4% 55.0% 50.5% 1404 ↑ top
3 Fire Exia 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 53.2% 53.3% 51.5% 1362 ↑ top
4 Water Astra Ranger 2 25.0% 6 50.0% 49.6% 50.0% 49.9% 1284
5 Water Umbra Ciel 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 47.2% 46.7% 48.7% 1161 ↓ low
6 Wind Allies 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 45.8% 42.2% 44.7% 1218 ↓ low
7 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 36.3% 40.0% 44.0% 1160 ↓ low