← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1319
· range 1253–1385
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1176
Q3 1412
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arcane | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
