← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water Umbra AliceTier 2
at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.8%
avg ELO -9.4 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1001
· median 1001
· range 1001–1001
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1176
Q3 1412
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arcane | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
